Yo, college football fam—it’s November 11, 2025, and if you’re not buzzing harder than a pre-game tailgate, check your pulse. We’re staring down Week 12, rivalry flames are roaring, and the College Football Playoff field’s starting to sharpen like a fresh pair of spikes. But amid the chaos, one question’s got everyone scrolling odds boards and yelling at their TVs: Who’s snagging that golden stiff-arm in NYC on December 13? The Heisman Trophy—the ultimate “you’re the man” in college ball—is wide open, with a pack of QBs slinging dimes, dual-threat wizards, and even a WR or two crashing the party.
Forget the blue-chip hype; this year’s race is a thriller, blending gaudy stats, clutch moments, and “how the hell is that team winning?” vibes. We’re talking undefeated squads, portal miracles, and enough late-game magic to fuel a dozen highlight reels. Drawing from the latest odds (shoutout DraftKings, BetMGM, and FanDuel as of today), we’re ranking the top five contenders. I’ll hit their stories, Week 11 heat, and straight projections for the trophy haul. Grab your jersey—whether it’s crimson, scarlet, or something wild like Vanderbilt gold—and let’s break it down. Spoiler: It’s tighter than an overtime thriller.
The Heisman Landscape: Why This Race Feels Like a Playoff Already
Quick vibe check: The Heisman’s gone to QBs 16 of the last 20 years, but voters crave narrative—big numbers on big stages, leading your squad to glory. In 2025’s expanded 12-team playoff era, that means carrying a contender deep. NIL’s juicing the spotlight (hello, viral poses), and the portal’s mixing pedigrees with grinders. Top dogs hail from power conferences, but upsets like Vandy’s rise add spice.
Current odds leaders? A Big Ten QB duel atop the board, with SEC beasts nipping at their heels. No RB or defender’s cracking the elite tier yet (sorry, Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love—your 1,200 yards and 15 TDs are fire, but QBs rule). Projections? The winner needs 3,500+ total yards, 35+ TDs, and a conference title game cameo. With ballots dropping December 1, every snap counts. Let’s meet the fab five.
1. Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State – The Efficiency Machine (+175 to +200 Odds)
If poise had a poster boy, it’s Julian Sayin. This Ohio State sophomore—once a five-star Alabama commit who flipped to the Bucks—has been surgical since taking over mid-2024. Week 11? Chef’s kiss: 27-for-33, 303 yards, 1 TD in a blowout over Purdue, pushing his season line to 2,491 pass yards, 24 TDs, and a nation-leading 91.1 QBR. No picks in his last three starts. Ohio State’s No. 1-ranked D lets him pick teams apart like a hot knife through butter.
His edge? Ruthless accuracy (69.4% completion) amid elite weapons like Jeremiah Smith (more on him later). But critics whisper: Where’s the “Heisman moment”? OSU’s dominance (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) means no comebacks—just cruises. Voters love drama, and Sayin’s résumé lacks that Week 1 Texas scare’s fire.
Projection: Frontrunner to stay there. If the Bucks roll to Indy for the Big Ten title (hello, potential Mendoza showdown), he’s eyeing 3,800 yards and 32 TDs. A playoff run seals it—first Buckeye QB since Troy Smith in ’06. Risk: Blowouts dilute dazzle. Bet on him if you fade flash for fundamentals.
2. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana – The Clutch King (+175 Odds)
Talk about a glow-up: Indiana’s at 10-0 (7-0 Big Ten), and Mendoza’s the heartbeat. This Miami native exploded in Week 4 with five TDs vs. Illinois, but Week 11 was pure cinema: 19-for-30, 218 yards, 1 pass TD, plus a rushing score and that dagger-drive at Penn State—5-for-9, 87 yards, game-winner with 35 ticks left. Season stats? 2,342 pass yards, 26 TDs (tops nationally), 178.5 passer rating, and 240 rush yards with 5 scores.
Mendoza’s arc screams underdog: Transferred from Cal Poly, turned Hoosier heartbreak into heroics, including a 63-point explosion early. His “HEISMENDOZA” vibe—cool under chaos—has odds surging from +1400 to co-favorite.
Projection: Co-favorite with legs. A perfect finish (Michigan, Purdue left) nets 3,200 yards, 35 TDs, and a title game vs. Sayin—Heisman catfight! If Indiana sneaks the playoff at-large, he’s the narrative king. Hurdle: One upset, and the “miracle” label fades. Still, this feels like 2023 Jayden Daniels redux.
3. Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama – The Steady SEC Sniper (+650 Odds)
Bama bloodlines run deep, and Simpson’s channeling that Saban-era cool. Transferred from Auburn, he’s 9-1 as starter, with Alabama eyeing the SEC crown after four straight wins over top-16 foes. Week 11: Solid 20-9 grind over LSU—225 yards, 2 TDs, no picks—pushing his line to ~2,800 pass yards, 25 TDs, and a 77+ QBR floor.
He’s not flashy—more surgeon than gunslinger—but his rip-through reads and pocket presence scream pro-ready. Wins over Georgia, LSU? Voter catnip. But in Tuscaloosa (hey, local shoutout), we know: Bama expectations are Everest-high.
Projection: Dark horse to surge. November gauntlet (Oklahoma this week, then LSU rematch?) could add 1,000 yards and a title berth vs. Reed. Finals: 3,500 yards, 30 TDs. If ‘Bama hoists the SEC, he vaults—echoing Jalen Hurts’ grit. Risk: Low drama in lopsided wins.
4. Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M – The Dual-Threat Dynamo (+650 Odds)
Aggie faithful, rise up: Reed’s the walk-on wizard turning Kyle Field into a fortress. Overlooked out of high school, he grinded special teams before exploding in ’25. Week 11? 250 total yards, 2 TDs in a 38-17 smackdown of No. 22 Missouri—A&M’s 9-1, undefeated in SEC. Totals: 2,193 pass yards, 19 TDs, plus 756 rush yards and 6 ground scores.
His scrambler style—evasive like Lamar Jackson—fits the SEC grind, with highlight jukes going viral. Odds leaped post-upsets; he’s the feel-good freight train.
Projection: Playoff pusher. Rival Texas finale and SEC title shot? 3,500 pass/1,000 rush, 35 TDs if he stays hot. Wins it with a championship stunner. Downside: Modest arm stats cap ceiling unless he explodes.
5. Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt – The Portal Pirate (+2500 Odds)
Longshot alert: Pavia’s the brash NMSU transfer who’s got Vandy at 8-3—their best since forever. Week 11 OT thriller vs. Auburn: 377 pass yards, 3 TDs, 112 rushes for 1 more—489 total, 4 scores. Season: 2,977 pass, 25 TDs; 812 rush, 11 scores.
From JUCO gem to SEC slayer, his “Heisman pose” after LSU? Iconic. Vandy’s miracle run screams voters’ dream.
Projection: Top-5 lock, trophy sleeper. 10-2 finish, Music City Bowl fireworks—3,500 total yards, 38 TDs. If they crash the playoff, it’s the upset of the century. Risk: SEC sharks.
Honorable Mentions: The Ones Lurking in the Shadows
- Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1400 to +2500): 65 catches, 862 yards, 10 TDs—blowing up with Sayin. Rare WR shot, but DeVonta Smith vibes.
- Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+4000): D-II champ turned Rebel starter—1,959 yards, 13 TDs in 7-1 run. Egg Bowl glory?
- Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia (+3000): Steady hand, but needs flash.
The Big Picture: Who’s Your Heisman Hero?
This race? Mendoza’s clutch edges Sayin’s polish for my money—narrative + numbers = trophy. But Reed or Pavia could steal it with a November miracle. NIL’s amping exposure (Sayin’s got Ohio deals; Pavia’s Nashville swag), but grit wins.
For you fans—from Tuscaloosa smoke to Bloomington brews—who’s hoisting it? Drop your picks in comments, smash that poll (Mendoza or bust?), and let’s ride to December. RTR? Go Hoosiers? Hotty Toddy. Whatever—football’s better when it’s this electric.
