Alabama vs. Tennessee Football Picks: What the Oddsmakers Say for Week 8
The much-anticipated “Third Saturday in October” rivalry between Alabama and Tennessee returns in Week 8 of the 2024 college football season, setting the stage for one of the sport’s fiercest matchups. The rivalry runs deep, fueled by decades of history and competitive clashes. This year, Alabama enters as the No. 7 ranked team in the nation, while Tennessee comes in at No. 11. The game will take place in Knoxville at Neyland Stadium, known for its raucous atmosphere.
Let’s dive into what the oddsmakers predict, how the teams match up, and what trends bettors are following as this classic SEC showdown draws near.
Tennessee’s Rollercoaster Season So Far
Tennessee has had an up-and-down season in 2024, beginning with strong performances but facing unexpected hurdles along the way. The Volunteers sit at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in SEC play, coming off a narrow victory over Florida in Week 7. However, their earlier loss to unranked Arkansas was a shocking setback that highlighted some inconsistencies in their play, particularly in the passing game.
The Volunteers’ offense has relied heavily on its ground game, ranked No. 7 nationally, with running back Dylan Sampson leading the charge. He has racked up 699 rushing yards and scored 15 touchdowns, providing Tennessee with a reliable source of offense. Despite the team’s success on the ground, quarterback Nico Iamaleava has struggled to find rhythm through the air. Over the last four games, he has failed to surpass 200 passing yards, though he has limited turnovers by throwing just one interception during that stretch.
Iamaleava’s inability to consistently push the ball downfield has led to some missed opportunities for Tennessee. His overall quarterback rating of 51.4 (ranking 81st nationally) reveals room for improvement if Tennessee hopes to compete with Alabama’s fast-paced attack. While his 66 percent completion rate suggests efficiency, his 7 touchdowns to 3 interceptions ratio shows he’s not taking as many risks to stretch opposing defenses.
Alabama’s Quest for Dominance
On the other side of the field, Alabama has had its own share of challenges this season, despite boasting a 6-1 overall record. Their most recent victory, a nail-biter against South Carolina, saw them narrowly escape an upset, thanks to a crucial takeaway in the final minutes. Alabama’s special teams miscue nearly cost them the game, but they secured the win after forcing a turnover in South Carolina’s red zone.
Alabama’s offense is led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, a dual-threat playmaker who can burn defenses both through the air and on the ground. Milroe has completed nearly 73 percent of his passes, accumulating 1,483 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions this season. His ability to extend plays with his legs is a major asset, and he has already rushed for 319 yards and scored 11 touchdowns on the ground, leading the team in that category. With his dynamic skill set, Milroe will be a critical factor in Alabama’s offensive game plan against Tennessee’s defense.
Wide receiver Ryan Williams has emerged as Milroe’s top target, hauling in 23 catches for 576 yards and 6 touchdowns. His 25 yards per catch average speaks to his big-play ability, and he’ll be a handful for Tennessee’s secondary, which has struggled at times against faster receivers. Another key contributor is Germie Bernard, who has caught 20 passes for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns. Alabama’s deep receiving corps will look to exploit Tennessee’s younger cornerbacks.
On the ground, running back Jam Miller has been a revelation for Alabama. He leads the team with 360 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. Justice Haynes, another solid option, has added 249 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Alabama’s balanced offense, which can strike both through the air and on the ground, will test Tennessee’s ability to adjust defensively.
What the Oddsmakers Predict
As of the early predictions, Alabama is favored to win this Week 8 showdown. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Alabama is listed as a 2.5-point favorite over Tennessee, with the total points set at 55.5. The moneyline odds for Alabama are set at -130, meaning that bettors would need to wager $130 to win $100 if Alabama wins outright. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s moneyline is +110, offering a potential payout of $110 on a $100 bet if the Volunteers pull off the upset.
- Alabama: -2.5 (-110)
- Tennessee: +2.5 (-110)
- Over 55.5 points: -115
- Under 55.5 points: -105
Betting Trends and Analysis
Both teams come into this game with strong betting trends to consider. Tennessee has been solid against the spread (ATS), going 4-2 (66.7%) so far this season. Over the past nine games played in October, the Volunteers are 6-3 ATS. However, Tennessee has struggled against Alabama historically, going 2-6 ATS in the last eight matchups between the two teams.
Alabama, on the other hand, has been reliable on the road against Tennessee, covering the spread in 9 of the last 11 road games in Knoxville. Overall, the Crimson Tide is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Tennessee, a trend that favors Alabama as they head into this rivalry game. Alabama’s games have also leaned toward higher scoring affairs, with the total going over in 6 of their last 7 games, as well as in 6 of their last road matchups.
However, Tennessee’s games against SEC opponents have generally been lower scoring, with the total going under in 5 of their last 6 conference matchups. These conflicting trends make it challenging to predict whether this game will go over or under the 55.5-point total, though Alabama’s tendency for higher-scoring games could tip the scale toward the over.
Key Players and Matchups to Watch
When Alabama Has the Ball
Alabama’s offense will run through Jalen Milroe, whose dual-threat capabilities make him a constant danger to opposing defenses. Milroe’s ability to read defenses and make quick decisions will be crucial, especially when facing Tennessee’s aggressive front seven. Tennessee’s defense, which excels in stopping the run, will need to keep Milroe contained in the pocket to force him into tough passing situations.
Wide receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard provide Alabama with multiple options downfield. Williams, in particular, is a deep threat who can turn any play into a game-breaking moment. Tennessee’s young cornerbacks will have their hands full trying to keep up with Alabama’s speedy receiving corps.
On the ground, Alabama’s running back duo of Jam Miller and Justice Haynes will look to exploit any gaps in Tennessee’s defensive line. Miller’s 7.1 yards per carry is a testament to his vision and explosiveness, and if Alabama can establish the run early, it will open up play-action opportunities for Milroe to target his receivers downfield.
When Tennessee Has the Ball
Tennessee’s offense has lived and died by the success of their ground game this season, and that won’t change against Alabama. Running back Dylan Sampson will be the focal point, and his ability to find space against Alabama’s front seven will dictate how well Tennessee can move the ball. Sampson’s 5.9 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns make him one of the most productive backs in the nation, and Tennessee will rely on him to set the tone offensively.
Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee’s starting quarterback, must find ways to stretch Alabama’s defense with the passing game. His recent struggles, including four consecutive games under 200 passing yards, have raised concerns about his ability to lead a balanced attack. However, Iamaleava has shown efficiency by limiting turnovers, throwing just one interception over his last four games. He’ll need to take more chances downfield if Tennessee hopes to keep pace with Alabama’s offense.
Wide receivers Dont’e Thornton, Jr. and Squirrel White will be key targets in the passing game. Thornton leads Tennessee with 295 receiving yards on just 9 catches, showcasing his big-play ability with an average of 32.8 yards per reception. Squirrel White, while yet to score this season, leads the team with 20 receptions. Tight end Miles Kitselman also provides a reliable red zone target, having scored 2 touchdowns on 6 catches.
Predictions and Final Score
The oddsmakers project a tight game, and the implied score based on the point spread and total suggests a final outcome of 27-25 in favor of Alabama. Tennessee’s running game is potent, and their ability to control the clock will be key to keeping Alabama’s offense off the field. However, Alabama’s balanced attack, led by the dual-threat abilities of Jalen Milroe, gives them a slight edge in this matchup.
Tennessee’s defense will have to find ways to disrupt Milroe’s rhythm, whether by generating pressure up front or forcing him to make tough decisions in the passing game. If Tennessee can slow down Alabama’s ground attack and limit big plays through the air, they could force this game into a lower-scoring affair and give themselves a chance to pull off the upset. However, if Alabama can establish the run early and keep Tennessee’s defense on its heels, it could be a long day for the Volunteers.
Spread Consensus Picks
As of now, a majority of bettors (60 percent) are siding with Tennessee to cover the spread or win outright, while 40 percent are backing Alabama to win and cover the 2.5-point line. The tight spread indicates just how closely matched these teams are.
