Saturday, December 14, 2024

Predicting the NFL’s coaching carousel, NFL Draft

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With the NFL season set to conclude, many teams are in the midst of a late season playoff push. But what about the other side?

It’s the final quarter of the season, and yet a quarter of the NFL’s teams sit with at least ten losses. Usually this means several coaching changes have happened at this point.

While we’ve yet to see the last of head coaches fired this cycle, as we always see some surprises early in the offseason.

However, regarding the current and prospective openings, we will take our shot at guessing who could be tasked with saving some of these franchises.

New York Jets

My Prediction: Mike Vrabel

The first head coaching vacancy was opened up early on in October, with Robert Saleh being fired from the New York Jets.

With general manager Joe Douglas also being let go by the organization, this would be a good spot for a coach who would also like control over the roster.

Enter Mike Vrabel, who was let go in large part due to not seeing eye-to-eye with the Titans owner and general manager.

He had a successful run in Tennessee spearheaded by Derrick Henry, and would be inheriting another very talented back in Breece Hall.

There is the Aaron Rodgers domino that has yet to fall. Pending his 2025 status, Vrabel could be granted control over what is currently a very talented yet underachieving roster.

New Orleans Saints

My Prediction: Aaron Glenn

The Dennis Allen era is in the rearview mirror for the Saints, and new energy is desperately needed in the organization.

While I wanted to pick an offensive mind here, I don’t see the likes of Ben Johnson or Joe Brady leaving their coordinator positions for this opening. So instead, I’ll go with the former’s opposing coordinator.

Now heading the Detroit Lions defense, Glenn was previously the defensive backs coach for New Orleans through four seasons.

He’s been an integral part of the culture instilled by Dan Campbell in Detroit, and would command a respect in that locker room that Allen may not have been able to at times.

Chicago Bears

My Prediction: Ryan Day

This one may come a little bit out of left field, but we’ve seen many recent examples of college coaches making the jump to the NFL – even in lesser roles.

For instance, their division rival’s defensive coordinator came over from Boston College. The unstable state of the college game has caused many scenarios like this to occur.

The length Ohio State’s postseason run could shift my opinion on this scenario, but I see reason for both sides. Even despite his struggles against the team up North, he is still viewed as one of the best coaches in college football.

But a first-round exit and two straight losses to end the season could lead to a rift between Day and the Buckeye faithful. Hence, this opportunity could arise.

The development of Caleb Williams is also essential in this hiring process, and his previous work with CJ Stroud could make this a good fit for both sides.

If this happens, it would likely be the surprise of the carousel and shake up both the college and NFL world. We’ll see what Ryan Poles and company opt to do in a crucial era of their franchise.

The plethora of offensive talent also makes this a possible Ben Johnson hotspot, but I have to see him leave before I can believe it. That would be the most desired outcome for Bears fans (and any team looking for a head coach.)

Who’s Next?

Doug Pederson, Jaguars

It has been a rough year in Jacksonville, and with Trevor Lawrence out for the year a strong end to the season feels unlikely.

The Doug Pederson hot seat talk has shifted as the season comes to an end, but I would still assume a move will be made at the conclusion of the regular season.

Like Chicago, getting to coach up a former 1st overall pick at quarterback should be attractive to many prospective candidates.

Brian Thomas Jr has also emerged as a go-to target for the young quarterback. Supplement a little more and they can be back competing for the AFC South.

Prediction: Pederson fired, offensive mind hired as HC (Joe Brady or Adam Steinavich are names that comes to mind)

Antonio Pierce, Raiders

Following the firing of Josh McDaniels last season, Antonio Pierce earned his way to the Raiders head coaching position last year following the interim stint in 2023.

However, the 2-11 season has put his standing in jeopardy. The Raiders have already fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, but there’s a strong possibility this is not the last of moves that will be made.

The Raiders are one of many teams in this discussion staring the first overall draft pick in the face. And they have a pressing need at quarterback.

If Pierce is fired at the end of the season, I would anticipate the hire being made with that in mind.

Prediction: Pierce retained, but new OC hired (Klint Kubiak and Pat Shurmur come to mind)

Mike McCarthy, Cowboys

It was an assumption early in the season that Mike McCarthy was in his last year. However, a couple of late wins have posed the question (every single morning on ESPN) as to what will happen now.

Currently sitting at 5-8, playoffs are an afterthought especially considering the injuries to Dak Prescott. But this late season effort headed by Cooper Rush could buy him another season.

Unsure how this will be handled, it will definitely depend on how they finish this final four game stretch.

Prediction: McCarthy let go by Cowboys

The Bill Belichick Situation

The shock of last year’s cycle was Belichick not hired by any franchise last offseason. He’s now enjoying himself on TV – a lot like his disciple Nick Saban – but the question will be asked again as to whether or not he gets calls.

As of late, he’s actually been linked to a college head coach opening, with North Carolina showing interest after firing Mack Brown.

If he ultimately accepts, this becomes a moot point. But if not, He would very much be in play for multiple of these openings.

His market wasn’t strong last offseason, but enough interest could force the hand of one of these organizations. Only time will tell.

Update: Bill Belichick has officially been hired by North Carolina as the head coach. So that possibility is out of the window for all NFL franchises with an opening.

Midseason Mock Draft (no trades)

Other than free agency, the NFL Draft is the biggest process in finding champions and building blocks for a franchise.

It’s early, but here’s my best guess at how the first round of the NFL Draft would shake out today – with no predicted trades.

Some notes on the mock, courtesy of the Pro Football Focus mock draft simulator:

  • While I don’t feel strongly that they’ll go with the first two picks, it looks likely that Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward will be the first two quarterbacks off the board. I’d go even further and predict they will be the only two drafted in the first round.
  • A lot of front seven players on defense in this mock draft, and I feel early that’s where this class is at its deepest.
  • Lord help us if the Chiefs actually get Colston Loveland to be Travis Kelce’s heir apparent.

Favorite Fits

Travis Hunter to the Patriots (or Jaguars)

The potential Heisman Trophy winner will see that hype carry over to the NFL Draft as well, who would’ve guessed?

The question for Hunter will be which position he plays, with the two-way star being highly coveted at the next level at both cornerback and wide receiver.

Financially, seeing the contracts of Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb among others make playing receiver the right business decision.

However, I think he ends up playing mostly at cornerback in the NFL. If that’s the case, I think the fit in New England alongside Christian Gonzales would make for one of the most athletic cornerback duos in the entire league.

Tyler Warren to the Colts

Shane Stechien came over from Philadelphia and got his own dynamic dual threat quarterback in Anthony Richardson, who has looked much better since being benched midseason.


Dallas Goedert was an underrated part of the Eagles offense that sprung them to a Super Bowl berth two seasons ago, and there are a couple of strong tight ends in this class.

Enter Tyler Warren, who has pretty much done it all for Penn State this season. Giving Richardson his security blanket would raise the floor for this Colts offense.

Jalon Walker to the Cardinals

After heading into the bye week on a four-game win streak, the Cardinals have lost three straight and are on the outside looking in on the division and playoff race.

Their pass rush has gotten better in the late stretch of the season, but they don’t have a game wrecker that can just turn it on when they need it most.

Walker is a linebacker from Georgia who does it all for them, playing both off ball and as a situational pass rusher.

The Cardinals have a long history with these types – with a couple already on the roster in Zaven Collins and Baron Browning – but Walker offers more upside than both to become that relentless presence off the edge.

Shedeur Sanders to the Raiders

This pretty much says it all.

There’s no telling how many more names emerge during the pre-draft process. If your team is out of the playoff race at this stage, there’s still plenty to look forward to.


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